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Property values would continue to fall in ensuing years, the report said, because landlords would have less incoming revenue to invest in their properties and maintain them. That, in turn, could lead to what the report calls a “fiscal tsunami,” in which lower property values would mean declining residential property taxes paid to cities, forcing local officials to either raise taxes or cut spending on “vital public services like fire and police protection, snow removal and road repair” to fill the gap.

“City and towns are going to have to confront this,” Evan Horowitz, executive director of the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University, said in a press conference Tuesday. “Do we want to collect this money or do we want to raise taxes on people?”

Asked about the methodology comparing previous studies to project losses in Massachusetts, Horowitz said “every rent control regime is sort of a snowflake and you’re never going to find a study that matches exactly.”

But, he continued, the studies are “detailed and rigorous,” and the center was able to devise a way to model the impacts for Massachusetts.

“It’s always possible it could have widely different [effects], but I think your bet should be on it being similar,” he said. “So do I know exactly how this is going to affect every city in town? No. Am I confident about this as a good way to project the likely implications? Yeah.”

Supporters of the ballot question campaign said their proposal was developed with input from residents and experts across Massachusetts.

“This modern rent-stabilization ballot initiative will protect tenants from big corporate investors who unreasonably increase rents,” said Keep Massachusetts Home, a coalition of tenant advocates, unions and progressive groups. “It’s the immediate relief we need to protect people as we work to fully address our state’s housing crisis.”

The rent control measure has some exceptions. It would not apply to small owner-occupied buildings with four or fewer units; units rented to people for less than 14 days; those operated for educational, religious or nonprofit purposes; and units that received a residential certificate of occupancy within the last decade, according to a summary prepared by the attorney general’s office.

If the ballot measures passes, it would be one of the strictest state-level rent control programs in the country.

“ Something like 70% of rental properties are going to be covered by the ballot question,” Horowitz said. “ There’s no town that’s insulated.”

Gov. Maura Healey has said she’s worried rent control would decrease housing production at a time when the state is under pressure to improve affordability. She told WBUR she’s heard from developers who say they’ve lost investments since the announcement of the proposal, and are halting production or choosing to develop in other states.

Rent control “absolutely stands in the way of housing production,” Healey said Wednesday. “This particular measure, it’s poorly written for achieving lower housing costs.”

Boston Mayor Michelle Wu has said while the language is imperfect, she would support a potential ballot question that would implement rent control in Massachusetts. She has advocated for rent control in Boston, but the state Legislature has had no appetite for it.

The real estate interests’ report says Boston faces a “double challenge:” The fiscal strain caused by the “collapsing value of downtown office buildings” would be exacerbated by rent control.

The Legislature is reviewing the ballot measures. They have until May 5th to consider and potentially act on the proposals. If the Legislature decides not to take action, petitioners must then collect an additional 12,429 signatures to ensure the questions appear on the ballot. Meanwhile, both sides will watch the results of a lawsuit filed in the Supreme Judicial Court trying to stop the measure.

Source: https://www.wbur.org/news/2026/03/12/rent-control-ballot-initiative-affordability-housing

Author: Stephanie Brown